The Confidence Level Variations Method: Extending Your Action Range Through Systematic Confidence Building
While reading Brian Tracy’s “The Psychology of Selling,” I encountered a powerful insight about how self-concept influences action. This led me to develop what I call the Confidence Level Variations Method - a systematic approach to identifying and overcoming self-damaging self-censorship.
The Hidden Problem: Confidence-Limited Action Ranges
Most people don’t realize how much their confidence level constrains their available actions. We naturally select strategies that match our current self-concept, but this creates a hidden problem: our choices of actions can maintain confidence levels low or, conversely, increase confidence levels, leading to either vicious or virtuous circles.
For example, if I’m not confident about taking several executive leadership courses simultaneously, I won’t look for strategies to reduce the workload while maintaining learning quality. Therefore, I miss the chance to develop this capacity, which lowers my confidence for next time. Conversely, if I assume I will succeed, I’m likely to develop the necessary skills and build confidence for future challenges.
Beyond “Comfort Zone” Thinking
The traditional framing of “going out of your comfort zone” implies discomfort, which creates reluctance and can push people into self-inflicted emotional pain. This approach often fails, especially when someone is already feeling challenged.
Instead, I propose “extending your confidence zone” to a range of actions that can actually increase confidence. This suggests tapping into a potential of actions that create positive loops rather than forcing yourself through discomfort.
The Confidence Level Variations Method
Here’s the systematic approach I’ve developed:
Step 1: Select a General Goal
Choose a specific goal you’re working toward. For example: “Succeed in sales this year” or “Complete advanced leadership training.”
Step 2: List Target Properties
Identify measurable aspects of your goal: delay, quality, quantity, scope, etc. For a sales goal, this might include target revenue, number of clients, deal sizes, timeline, etc.
Step 3: Current Confidence Level
Rate your confidence for achieving each target property on a scale of 1-10. For example: “Sales target of $100k/year, confidence level 5/10.”
Step 4: Current Course of Action
Identify the specific actions you’re planning at your current confidence level. What meetings will you schedule? What investments will you make? What strategies will you pursue?
Step 5: Simulation of Increased Confidence
Key question: If your confidence level were 7/10 instead of 5/10, what would you do differently?
For the sales example: invest more in high-quality sales meetings, offer better restaurants and gifts to prospects, pursue larger deals, make bolder presentations, invest in premium sales tools, etc.
Step 6: Marginal Damage Analysis
How damaging would it be to choose the course of action for the higher confidence level, rather than your current planned actions, and NOT reach your target?
Rate from 0 (not damaging) to 3 (very damaging).
Critical insight: If the marginal damage is ZERO, then why not pursue the higher-confidence actions?
Step 7: Marginal Confidence Gain
What would be the impact on your confidence if you succeeded in reaching your target using the higher-confidence approach? Rate from +1 to +3.
Step 8: Marginal Risk Assessment
Subtract marginal damage score from marginal confidence score:
- Negative result: You’re appropriately cautious at your current confidence level
- Positive result: It’s worth trying the higher-confidence approach
- Zero damage + positive confidence: You have a zero-risk opportunity to build confidence!
Practical Examples
Executive Training Decision
Goal: Complete Stanford LEAD program Current confidence: 6/10 (worried about time management) Current plan: Take one course, see how it goes 7/10 confidence actions: Enroll in full program, arrange better time management systems, invest in productivity tools Marginal damage: 1/3 (some wasted money if I can’t complete) Marginal confidence: +2 (major boost if successful) Assessment: +1 overall - worth trying the bolder approach
Sales Investment Strategy
Goal: $150k revenue this year Current confidence: 4/10 Current plan: Continue with existing low-cost approaches 6/10 confidence actions: Invest in premium networking events, higher-quality client dinners, professional sales training Marginal damage: 1/3 (increased expenses) Marginal confidence: +3 (significant confidence boost) Assessment: +2 overall - definitely worth the investment
Business Development Approach
Goal: Launch new consulting service Current confidence: 5/10 Current plan: Start small, test with existing clients 7/10 confidence actions: Develop premium positioning, invest in professional branding, target higher-level executives Marginal damage: 0/3 (can always scale back) Marginal confidence: +2 (builds expertise and credibility) Assessment: +2 with zero risk - obvious opportunity
The Psychology Behind the Method
Self-Concept and Action Selection
Brian Tracy’s insight about self-concept influencing action reveals that we unconsciously select strategies that match our internal confidence level. This creates consistency but also limitation - we rarely consider what we’d do if we felt more confident.
Compound Confidence Effects
Confidence operates on compound principles: each successful action at a higher confidence level makes future high-confidence actions more accessible. Conversely, consistently choosing low-confidence actions reinforces lower self-concept.
Breaking Vicious Cycles
Many people get trapped in vicious cycles where low confidence leads to conservative actions, which provide limited results, which reinforces low confidence. The Confidence Level Variations Method systematically identifies opportunities to break these cycles.
Advanced Applications
Team and Organizational Settings
This method works in group contexts too. Teams often select strategies based on collective confidence levels. By simulating what the team would do with higher confidence and analyzing marginal risks, groups can identify bolder approaches that might actually be safer than they appear.
Investment and Resource Allocation
The method applies to any situation involving resource allocation under uncertainty. Whether it’s marketing budgets, hiring decisions, or technology investments, simulating different confidence levels reveals options that might otherwise remain invisible.
Learning and Development Decisions
Particularly powerful for educational investments. The marginal damage of taking more challenging courses or pursuing additional credentials is often lower than expected, while the marginal confidence gains can be substantial.
Integration with Broader Systems
This method connects to several frameworks I’ve been developing:
Compound Thinking: Confidence builds on itself exponentially rather than linearly when you consistently choose slightly bolder actions.
Systems Thinking: Instead of treating confidence as fixed, we design systems that systematically build confidence through strategic action selection.
ECC Method: This confidence analysis becomes part of broader organizational and personal optimization frameworks.
Implementation Guidelines
Start with Low-Stakes Decisions
Practice the method on decisions where potential damage is minimal. This builds familiarity with the process before applying it to high-stakes situations.
Document Results
Track what happens when you choose higher-confidence actions. This creates evidence that informs future confidence calibration.
Regular Confidence Audits
Periodically review your goals and apply the method to ensure you’re not unconsciously limiting your action range due to outdated confidence assessments.
Social Confidence Extension
Share the method with colleagues and friends. Group confidence extension can be even more powerful than individual efforts.
The Broader Impact
What excites me most about this method is how it reveals zero-damage confidence-building opportunities that are completely invisible to traditional goal-setting approaches. Many of the actions we’d take with higher confidence actually carry minimal additional risk while offering substantial confidence-building potential.
The method doesn’t promise that confidence alone creates miracles, but it does provide a systematic way to identify more positive paths that we might otherwise dismiss due to unconscious self-limitation.
In a world where bold action is increasingly required for meaningful impact, having a systematic method for extending your confidence zone becomes not just personally valuable, but professionally essential.
The goal isn’t reckless overconfidence, but rather conscious confidence optimization - ensuring that our self-concept enables rather than constrains our contribution to important challenges.